Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability afforded by current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership follows the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require sustained allied backing.