Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but very few politicians or activists want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both writes two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has possesses something to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."